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It All Comes Down to This

 

September 8, 2006

Jack Lewis - SCR 

 

Twenty-five races, that's how many races 43 drivers have competed in in the Nextel Cup Series in 2006. Under the new Chase for the Championship format that leaves one race to go before the “Chase” begins. That race is Saturday night at the Richmond Int. Raceway and it will hold a lot of answers for many of the top 11 teams, including whether or not they will even have a fighting chance of winning the 2006 Nextel Cup Championship.

 

Let's start with the only driver who's outside the top 10 but still has a shot at making the “Chase.” That driver is Kasey Kahne, Kahne helped his cause last Sunday night at the California Speedway with a dominating win, his 5th victory of 2006, a season-high.

 

That's pretty hard to believe when you think about it, especially after NASCAR hoped that the new championship format would reward winning more. The Enumclaw, WA native's wins have mostly come at 1.5-2 mile tracks, starting with Atlanta, then Texas, Lowe's, and Michigan. Four wins in the first 15 races left most to believe that the young Evernham Motorsports driver would be a lock for the “Chase.”

 

Many stopped beliving after a two-race stretch at Indianapolis and Watkins Glen in early August, where Kahne, running near the top 10, found his way to either a hard crash (at Indy) or run off course (at the Glen), relinquishing him to sub-par finishes at both tracks.

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But the last couple weeks at Bristol and California Kahne has shown signs that he has his groove back. That means he will be running up front this Saturday night at Richmond, where, ironically, Kahne scored his first career Cup win at in May 2005. He has 30 points to gain to make the Chase, but everything under the sun to lose.

 

Jeff Burton, who I cited as "Comeback Driver of the Year for 2006" a couple weeks ago, even after his engine misfortune at Michigan, is on the bubble, sitting 10th in the standings, a mere 30 points ahead of Kahne. Burton's another driver who was thought to have had a strong hold of the Chase, especially a month ago when Burton sat 3rd in points, and it seemed that a win (for the first time since 11/01) was very near.

 

However, after an engine failure at Michigan that gave Burton his first DNF of '06, he dropped from 4th to 9th in points. A 9th place finish at Bristol a couple weeks ago vaulted the South Boston, VA native up to 7th, but even a somewhat decent 16th place finish at California still dropped Burton down to the bubble spot, showing just how competitive the series is.

 

Sitting ninth in points, in what may or may not be his final year, is Mark Martin. A couple weeks ago, Martin's car owner of almost 20 years, Jack Roush, said that it would be a huge personal letdown if Mark doesn't make the Chase. I think many fans will also be disappointed. But that is a definite possibility, considering that Martin has only two points on Jeff Burton, putting him 32 points ahead of 11th-place Kahne. That, and Martin's two finishes 20th or worse have put Martin in the danger zone.

 

The Batesville, AK native was a quiet contender through most of the first 25 races, just as he has done every year he's been in competition, but as the Chase has grown nearer, so has the pressure put on the 49-year old.

 

Just when you thought that a couple of the sport's best may be on the outside looking in, consider this. Should Kahne make the Chase, who would he bump out? Would it be the veterans and sentimental favorites in Burton and Martin? Will it be the defending series champion (8th in points) Tony Stewart? Will it be the young guns Kyle Busch (5th) or Denny Hamlin (7th)? Will it be a driver who has had some of the biggest shoes to fill in Kevin Harvick (3rd)? Or will it be the crowd favorites Jeff Gordon (4th) or Dale Earnhardt Jr. (6th)? Only time will tell. That time is Saturday night, under the lights, at the Richmond Int'l Raceway.

 

Questions, Comments;

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The views and opinions in this article are that of the writer and not necessarily that of SCR

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Born on: July 8, 2005

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