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The Numbers Game

 

September 6, 2006

Merv Casey - SCR

 

We are going to read a lot about the numbers this week. If car number X gains Y number of points over car Z then he is in the “Chase” or has advanced in the top ten. You will note, I am sure, that there are no she’s in this numbers game.  The only real question is where will they fall in the ten car line up. From top to bottom there will only be fifty points apart when the green flag drops at New Hampshire, not the whapping four hundred fifty points plus that now separates the top ten. 

 

But does it really matter? Probably not as long as Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon are in that “Chase,” which they both will definitely find themselves, I can’t see either not being in the “Chase” come September 17th.  I feel confident that NASCAR will see that they are in no matter who they have to find speeding on pit road or how much debris they have to find on the track, if one or the other is getting to far behind and needs tires, a little adjustment, or a cool soda to sooth their throat.

RSRBlackCheckS.jpg

 

I know if we look at tenth place at zero points then those above are on the plus side and those below are on the minus side as the numbers sit right now. Right now Jeff Burton is in and Kasey Kahne is out but only by thirty points.  So, depending on where they finish relative to each other Kahne could be in and Burton out. But then again it also depends on where they finish in the race.

 

For instance, if Burton finishes at Richmond in 23rd place then Kahne has to finish 13th or better to overtake Burton. But, that ol’ but again, if Burton finishes 4th or better, and assuming neither leads a lap, then Kahne is out of the chase period. But if along the way either leads a lap and gets the five bonus points – well I’m sure you get the picture. It will be interesting as the week wears on to see what the Vegas line is on which will make the “Chase.”

 

So what does this all mean? Well the same logic can be used for any of the drivers from fourth (Gordon) on down the line. That of course assumes that one or more of the drivers doesn’t start the race – starting the race guarantees them at least 34 points so to think that one of the top contenders would not start the race is rather idiotic.  And no matter how you play with the points Carl Edwards is just out of luck in ’06 even if he wins the race and leads the most laps he still falls short of Kahne.

    

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So for those of you that have nothing better to do with your t me play around with the numbers for the top ten or eleven in the points right now;  see if you can set the top ten in the order they will start the “Chase.”

 

I did and here is what I came up with.

 

1 – Jimmy Johnson

2 - Matt Kenseth

3 – Kevin Harvick

4 – Jeff Gordon

5 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.

6 – Kyle Busch

7 – Tony Stewart

8 – Denny Hamlin

9 – Jeff Burton

10 – Kasey Kahne

  

Questions, Comments;

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The views and opinions in this article are that of the writer and not necessarily that of SCR

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Born on: July 8, 2005

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