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Top Ten Dilemma

 

August 10, 2006

Kevin Carver - SCR

 

There are just five races left to make it into Nextel Cup's "Chase" format and still no one can tell which ten drivers will or won't be chasing a championship after Richmond.  So, why not look at the current top ten and predict what is to come five weeks from now. 

 

Let's face it; Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth are all but locked into "The Chase."  Both proved that statement should be true with the cars they had at Indianapolis and that one, two finish.  Oddly that is the way they stand in points as well.  Barring that either have three DNF's or more in the next five races, both should be virtual locks in "The Chase."  Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Mark Martin, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. all currently sit in the top ten.

 

These eight drovers are only separated by 156 points, so this spells panic and craziness for the next few weeks.  Jeff Burton and his teammate Kevin Harvick continue to look strong.  The bad part is that both of them have only claimed one victory each at the remaining five tracks in there career.  Burton has done so at Richmond and Harvick at Bristol. 

 

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Kyle Busch has been the quiet one of the bunch.  That's funny; because what he is doing reminds me of what his brother Kurt in 2004… you know when he won it all. 

 

Winning at all five tracks in the past helps Mark Martin's confidence going into the next five weeks.  As a matter of fact, 11 of his 35 wins have come at those five tracks. 

 

Denny Hamlin is still the man that nobody really knows what to expect from him.  Bristol and Watkins Glen seem to be Hamlin's biggest two challenges before heading to a place he loves and that is Richmond.  Although Hamlin is on a roll with a win and not finishing any worse than 14th in his last five events. 

 

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has won at two, Tony Stewart has collected a win at four of those tracks and Jeff Gordon has won at all five venues.

 

Only four real outsiders have a shot at making it into the top ten I am afraid.  Kasey Kahne, Greg Biffle, Kurt Busch, and Carl Edwards are those four.  With Kahne sitting on the bubble as a Chase contender, who would have thought four wins wasn't good enough to make the Chase?  If Kahne doesn't make it, this could be one for the biggest debacles to show up in the NASCAR record books. 

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Greg Biffle has a good enough team to be in the Chase, but things have happened in which Biffle has not had any control over, or anyone else for that matter.  What is worse for the competition is that Biffle isn't that bad at any of the next five tracks. 

                                              

Kurt Busch maybe the hottest driver among what the stats say.  Busch who won the format two years ago has 167 points to make up at the moment and has finished no worse than 16th in eight of the last nine events. 

Making it to third in the final standings last year, Carl Edwards now looks at a 202 point deficit following Indy.  Edwards chances are slim, but it is still possible.

 

So, who make’s it into The Chase?  Here is the way I have it.

 

1) Jimmie Johnson

2) Matt Kenseth

3) Kevin Harvick

4) Jeff Burton

5) Kyle Busch

6) Mark Martin

7) Tony Stewart

8) Jeff Gordon

9) Kasey Kahne

10) Greg Biffle

 

Questions, Comments;

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The views and opinions in this article are that of the writer and not necessarily that of SCR

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