T. Jay Maddox - SCR

Fantasy Picks for Lowe’s

October 10, 2008

T. Jay Maddox - SCR

This week the Sprint Cup Series travels to Concord, North Carolina for the "Bank of America 500," October 11th at the Lowe's Motor Speedway (LMS) for the fifth race of the Chase for Championship. Tony Stewart won last week at Talladega in a race that had not one but two “Big Ones.” Seems strange to say but it was the first victory of the year for Stewart.

My fantasy picks from last week at Kansas finished 1st (Tony Stewart), 28th (Dale Earnhardt, Jr.), and 38th (Jeff Gordon). The drivers I picked to steer clear of last week finished 24th (Greg Biffle), 29th (Carl Edwards) and 36th (Kasey Kahne).

Not the best week of handicapping but that’s Talladega. Picking the winner is an accomplishment but picking the finishing order is just a crap shoot and it proved to be once again last week. It’s very easy to get caught up in other’s mistakes thus ending your day. As predicted Edwards and Biffle hung back until late in the race then made their move. With Edwards pushing Biffle to the lead, he got caught being a bit too aggressive spinning Biffle while taking out himself, Biffle, Earnhardt, Jr., and several others.

But now it’s on to Lowe’s where predictability is a bit easier. Lowe's Motor Speedway is a 1.5 mile oval 24 degree banking located in Concord, NC, just north of Charlotte. Don’t forget this is a Saturday night race under the lights with track events moved up a day.

Strap these guys in:

Jeff Gordon - His record at Lowe’s is impressive. He‘s won 7 poles and 5 races since 1993 with his latest victory coming in last year‘s fall race. He finished fourth here in the spring. In 31 races he‘s only finished outside the top 10 five times other than in races where he had crashes or mechanical failures. It’s true that others have been stronger this year on these 1.5 mile tracks but this is team that is coming on late in the season.

Kasey Kahne - This may be a crazy pick given Kahne has not had a top 10 finish since Fontana six races ago. His last three finishes this season are 26th, 21st and 36th. However, Kahne is a 3-time winner at Lowe’s including the spring race this year. In fact he has won at Charlotte in 3 of the last 5 races. He’s led 616 laps in his 9 starts here and if there is track for him to make up for a disappointing season, this would be an excellent opportunity for him to do it.

Carl Edwards – It’s difficult to pick against Edwards, Biffle or Jimmie Johnson given their strong runs of late particularly during the Chase and on this type of track. But rather that bandwagon, I will pick just one and it’s hard to argue with Edwards’ performance here. In seven races at Lowe’s his worst finish is 15th! All the rest are top 10s. He’s hasn’t won nor led that many laps but he’s always near the front. He’s either due for a poor race or a victory and I’d bet on the latter.

Other drivers to keep in mind are the afore-mentioned Johnson, Jeff Burton and Bobby Labonte. Labonte hasn’t finished worse than 18th in either the spring or the fall race in the last 10 years and has won here twice. I would not pick him to win, but look for him to have solid finish.

Steer clear of these drivers:

Ryan Newman - In 15 races, he has won the pole a staggering seven times, including two of the last three. In 12 of those races his worst starting position is 4th. Finishing is another matter. He’s crashed out twice and had three engine failures. His last five finishes have been 21st or worse. He has only five top 10s and more surprisingly the most laps he’s led in any race has been 50 even after starting on the pole seven times. He lost an engine at Talladega last week and finished dead last.

Kurt Busch - Newman’s teammate has not fared well here either. In 16 starts he has two top 10s. He’s crashed out three times and four his last five finishes here have been between 26th and 39th. This is after having started in the top 10 in each of the last three races. He did lead 64 laps here in the spring, but since then he’s led a total of 18 laps in the last 18 races of this season.

Juan Pablo Montoya - Since I’ve picked on two Dodges already I might as well throw another one under the bus. Montoya has raced here three times and has not started better than 20th and not finished better than 28th. He started 42nd and finished 30th here in the spring. He had a great car and drove an excellent race last week at Talladega, but got caught up in Edwards’ mistake and finished 25th. Racing luck and performance at Lowe’s means you should look elsewhere this week.

Other drives to be concerned about this week include Robby Gordon, David Gilliland and Brian Vickers.

Having a tough time making your picks this week? Feel free to email me your questions on other drivers and I will share my thoughts. As always your comments are welcome.

Good Luck and have a great race.

Questions, Comments:

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The views and opinions in this article are that of the writer(s) and not necessarily that of SCR