2007 Chase Won't be Decided
Until Homestead, Lap 267
October 30, 2007
Jack Lewis - SCR
Four years ago at this
time, the biggest news in NASCAR was the departure of Winston, the title sponsor of the Cup Series since 1971, and the arrival
of Nextel for the 2004 season.
What about the championship
battle, you ask? What championship battle? Matt Kenseth had a 258-point advantage over Dale Earnhardt Jr. at this point in
the season following the Atlanta race, and wound up clinching the championship
at the second-to-last race at Rockingham.
Four years later, it's
a whole new ballgame.
Jeff Gordon, who has
been a model of consistency this season, finishing in the top 10 in all but six races, four of which occurred in a six-race
"mini slump" in August, would have over a 400-point lead with only three races left under the old point system. Instead, his
teammate and protégé Jimmie Johnson has done all but taken the lead from the four-time champion, sitting a mere nine points
back with three races to go.
Momentum goes a long
way in NASCAR, and I don't think there's any doubt this Chase will come down to whoever finishes higher in these next three
races between the Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) teammates.
Here's to put into perspective
how much momentum plays a part in this sport. Gordon had a 68-point advantage over Johnson after he won his second straight
race at Lowe's Motor Speedway, a track dubbed Johnson's "house." You'd think that by finishing 3rd at Martinsville, Gordon’s
"house", and 7th Sunday at Atlanta, that Gordon would still have most of that
lead.
Think again.
Johnson won at Martinsville
and Atlanta, with great setup changes by crew chief Chad Knaus, and a hint of
luck as well. As for Gordon, he's lost 59 points in two races and his average finish in those two races is 5th. See what I'm
saying about momentum?
Like most people, I believe
the Chase is down to these two drivers. Clint Bowyer, undoubtedly the breakout driver of this 2007 season, is 111 points behind
the HMS tandem, and will need a near miracle to score Richard Childress Racing its first championship since 1994, when Dale
Earnhardt won his record-tying seventh and final championship.
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However, strange things
have happened. In 2004, Kurt Busch had a healthy point lead over his competitors going into the Atlanta race, when his engine
blew not even a quarter into the race. He finished 42nd, while others capitalized and shrunk his point lead. Then in the series'
final race at Homestead, he came within inches, literally, of losing a championship, barely missing the pit wall after losing
a right front tire. He managed to come back and win the title, but only by eight points over Johnson.
I think these last four
races we've witnessed in October have shown how much momentum plays a factor in the Chase, with Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson
scoring two wins each. When this four race stretch began at Talladega on October
7th, Gordon led the points by 1 over Johnson. How close is this Chase? In the last month, Gordon managed to gain eight points
over his teammate, and that's after winning half the races.
2006 StockCar Review.
