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Completely Unscientific Chase Predictions!

 

October 4, 2006

Jay Staton - SCR

 

The Chase, and predicting the winner, is the current hot topic, week in and week out. Individual race winners (by the way, congratulations, Smoke, on your silent victory) are almost incidental compared to “The Race for the Chase”.

 

Everything from momentum to crew chief relationships (or lack thereof) to supposedly illegal parts is cited as a “prediction” of who will win the thing.

 

Of course, as the Chase moves forward, this process naturally becomes easier due to attrition and columnists become more and more accurate (after the fact, of course…).

Additionally, frequently this column is queried as to just who will be the 2006 Nextel Cup Champion.

 

So, here is the list, but presented in an honest fashion, that is, based only upon pure subjective guesses, guaranteed to upset almost everyone! Additionally, it admittedly has little connection to what actually will occur on the track, so hold the “boy were you wrong” after the final Chase event comments. Enjoy…

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Number Ten: Kyle Busch

 

Busch has shown a lot of on track maturity lately, as evidenced by his lack of skirmishes both on and off the track. However, this is not his year. In fact, it may take him a few years to get there from here. But he is gaining on it!

 

Number Nine: Kasey Kahne

 

Kahne’s team has been designed by car owner Ray Evernham to be a huge information swap between his teammates. However, Ray’s off track drama has not helped the effort. Hopefully, in the future it will all shake out, and Ray will take steps to start with a clean slate. Kasey, like the car, runs hot and cold, and while he is showing maturity in this area, his championship will have to wait for another year.

 

Number Eight: Dale Earnhardt Jr.:

 

“Fire up the email Ethyl, this guy says Jr. is only coming in eighth!” Dale Jr. shows flashes of brilliance, but still is racing from pit stop to pit stop, not week to week. He believes daddy helped him out of his burning Corvette, maybe he should check in once in a while with that general area to find the confidence that is already within him. His time will come, but only after he truly believes in himself.

 

Number Seven: Kevin Harvick

 

The Earnhardt’s and Richard Childress racing go way back. Interestingly, Kevin drives a little like Dale Jr. He has been down, and now is on an upswing, but he did not learn to be humble on the last round, instead asking what his team could do for him.

 

Harvick has earned the Busch championship, Cup will have to wait for another year.

 

Number Six: Matt Kenseth

 

Mr. Kenseth has been the victim of on track incidents, and in some cases, was not so much the victim. Matt is re-finding the good guy that he is under Chase conditions. This year it will take racing without incident and the good fortune not to have trouble to win every week. Kenseth has won this deal before, but this will not be his year.

 

Number Five: Jeff Gordon

 

Gordon is certainly hungry for another championship, and he knows how to win them. But somewhere along the way he did what a lot of multiple champions—including Dale Earnhardt Sr. - have been known to do, and that is to drive smart, instead of on the edge. Gordon will win another championship, but first his life needs to settle, and then he can re-focus on racing.

 

Number Four: Jimmie Johnson  

 

Jimmie certainly deserves to win the thing, but somehow in the homestretch he always loses ground. Still, through adversity he is gaining maturity, and will continue to do so. This year appears to be no different than previous years, but Jimmie has a championship (or three) in him. Hang in there, Mr. Johnson.

Number Three: Denny Hamlin

 

Denny is the real deal. He drives like David Pearson with a little bit of Cale Yarborough thrown in from time to time. He drives smart and for points, yet is aggressive and is unaware and unafraid of what, as a rookie, he does not yet know. Hamlin’s heart and drive just might earn him all the marbles.

 

Numbers Two and One:  Jeff Burton and Mark Martin

 

Both Burton and Martin come in at just about a tie. Both are principled off the track, drive clean on the track, and yet are tough as nails. Both are benchmarks of “how to get it done” for the younger racers, and both place a higher power at the head of the table, and know that if the championship is to be, it will be, and if not, that is okay too.

 

This is precisely why they are the picks to win it all—there is more to life than this championship, and by understanding that, it puts them at Peace and in the precise position they need to be to take home the Cup.

 

But, you say, there can be no ties in Cup! Therefore we will award the Completely Unscientific Guess to (drum roll please)… Mark Martin, for pure and unabashedly sentimental reasons!

 

Seriously, Talladega is coming up this weekend, and the danger of that place far outweighs pulling for “your pick” in the Championship. While getting your chips and favorite adult beverage together before the race, don’t forget to ask for a safe race, for your favorites, as well as those well down on your list.

 

Questions, Comments;

Email Jay   

  

The views and opinions in this article are that of the writer and not necessarily that of SCR

 

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Born on: July 8, 2005

Copyright Symbol 2006 StockCar Review.